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Jeff's avatar

Thanks Al- I have been involved in the medical response primarily to counterforce military targets with modeling of low yield weapons. A challenge that I have is that I find that many leaders have no concept of nuclear phenomenology. There is also a tendency to assume that any exchange, ,including a small tactical exchange, would lead to unrestrained escalation which is worrisome to me. As a physician, I do think use of any nuclear weapon is insane but based on my modeling I can see it potentially being useful militarily- especially if the adversary would be overwhelmed. Another question I have is that the modeling has demonstrated that a small tactical weapon, if you are prepared, likely has more downsides then upsides when it comes to use, but if you are unprepared you can be incapacitated by a potentially manageable situation -- however there is a resistance to preparing (is this normalization of the nuclear taboo or does preparation help strengthen the nuclear taboo) and considering the range of other solutions that humanity could offer outside of modernization or obtaining parity with tactical nuclear weapons.

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Phil Tanny's avatar

Thanks for your blog and this article, it's always great to see anybody on Substack address this all important issue.

I'm only a modestly informed average citizen (tannytalk.com/s/nukes) and won't pretend to be able to keep up with your expert level discussion. My lack of detailed technical knowledge forces me to look at nukes through a different lens. What I see through a more man in the street common sense lens is that nothing any experts or activists have done in 75 years has removed the threat, and in fact, we seem to be traveling ever deeper in to danger.

On one hand we could claim the status quo is working, because we haven't had a nuclear war. On the other hand, we could say the status quo is a failure, as it seems inevitable that on the current course sooner or later we will have a nuclear war.

If you care to comment, I'd be interested to read your reflections on such matters. Thanks!

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